Recessions and the Stock Market

The stock market and the economy are not always in sync with one another.

Here is an interesting look at every recession since WWII along with S&P 500 returns in the 6 months leading up to the recession, during the actual recession itself, and then 1, 3, 5 years, and 10 years from the end of the recession:



Sometimes the stock market front runs the economy. Sometimes stocks are too slow to react to economic data. Sometimes stocks fall as the economy is contracting. Sometimes stocks bottom well before the economy does.

As you can see, most of the time, the S&P 500 does very well after a recession is over.

The AVERAGE 1, 3, 5 and 10 year year forward returns for the S&P 500 following a recession are +20.9%, +48.6%, +93.5% and +256.4%, respectively. Not too shabby.

all the best… Mark

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